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You’ll be able to see the rise in imports from a lot lower than 1% in the Nineteen Sixties to about 2% of US GDP within the mid 2000s (until the nice recession hit). The opposite attention-grabbing factor is that consumption of autos (as a fraction of the economic system) started a critical decline in the early 2000s. That is going to complicate the analysis which I will take up again in the subsequent publish.

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Complicating your exercise even more is the fact that folks are likely to hold their cars longer nowadays than they used to. This is largely as a result of high quality has gone up, lowering the frequency needed to buy a new automotive. I believe this has much more to do with the declining share of GDP devoted to auto purchases than any of the opposite factors you talked about.